Research Dossier 05: Salon Business, Economics, Licensing, Employment and Industry Trends

Research date: September 17, 2026 Cluster: Salon business, economics, licensing, employment and industry trends Supports posts: 22 (commission vs. booth vs. suite), 23 (pricing), 24 (licensing by state), 25 (no tax on tips), 26 (state of the industry)

Scope: US labor market data for barbers, hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists; salon industry size and structure; salon suite franchises; compensation models; worker classification; tip reporting and the 2025 federal qualified-tips deduction; cosmetology and barber licensing hours, reforms, and the Cosmetology Licensure Compact; beauty school costs and federal accountability; pricing methods and retail margins; chain salons (Regis).

Method note and limitations: Research used WebSearch and WebFetch only. Partway through, the session's shared web-search budget ran out (200/200) and WebFetch was persistently rate-limited (HTTP 429). As a result, several planned items could not be verified. They are listed under "Open questions," including Ulta Beauty salon data, Great Clips unit counts, current federal gainful-employment status, IJ's beauty school debt report figures, and state hidden-fee laws. Where a figure came through a secondary summarizer, this dossier says so. Some WebFetch outputs are model summaries of pages. Where precision mattered (BLS wages), verbatim quotes were requested and used.

Key findings

1. BLS (OOH, modified Aug. 27, 2026): 670,800 jobs in 2025 (hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists 595,000; barbers 75,800). Group median pay was $35,880/yr ($17.25/hr) in May 2025. Hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists: median $17.21/hr (10th percentile <$13.00; 90th >$34.23). Barbers: $18.37/hr (<$13.75; >$36.76). Tips are included. Confidence: High (verbatim quotes). BLS OOH
2. Projections 2025–35: +7% combined ("much faster than average"), +48,400 jobs, 80,300 openings/yr. Split: hairdressers etc. +8% (to 640,900), barbers +3% (to 78,300). Confidence: High for the combined figure; Medium for the split (from a summarized read of the projections tab). BLS OOH
3. Self-employment: 80% of barbers and 48% of hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists are self-employed (BLS). OEWS wage data largely excludes self-employed workers, so the medians describe employees. Confidence: High.
4. No tax on tips: Final regs (TD 10044; Federal Register April 13, 2026; effective June 12, 2026) list TTOC 603 "Barbers, Hairdressers, Hairstylists, or Cosmetologists" (shampooers illustrative) and TTOC 606 eyebrow/eyelash technicians. The deduction is up to $25,000 per return, for tax years 2025–2028, and phases out by $100 per $1,000 of MAGI over $150,000/$300,000. It is available to itemizers and non-itemizers, requires an SSN and joint filing if married, and for the self-employed is limited to net income from the business. Service charges are excluded. FICA/SE tax still applies. SSTB rules are reserved, with transition relief under Notice 2025-69. Confidence: High. Federal Register; IRS; RSM
5. Cosmetology Licensure Compact: 13 member states (AL, AZ, CO, DE, KS, KY, MD, OH, PA, TN, VA, WA, WV). PA was 13th (July 2026). The commission said in July 2026 that the compact was not yet operational. Secondary sources report Arizona issued the first multistate licenses in mid-September 2026 ($30 compact fee). Confidence: High on membership; Medium on issuance (not confirmed on official sites). Commission; GL Solutions
6. Licensing burden: IJ's License to Work 3 (2022) found cosmetologists licensed in all 51 jurisdictions, with 233–490 days of education/experience (≈1,000–2,100 hours; Iowa highest), fees of $60–$450, and 15 states reducing requirements since 2017. Confidence: High for IJ's data; note IJ is an advocacy organization. IJ
7. Reforms: CA SB 803 (1,000 hours; health/safety 65→100 hours); TX 1,000 hours; Utah SB 330 (1,250-hour cosmetology via school or apprenticeship, eff. Jan. 1, 2026); Iowa HF 711 (June 2025, supervised establishment-training route); Ohio HB 238 (Jan. 2025, 450-hour natural hair stylists may cut); Illinois HB 3460 (2026, apprenticeships). Confidence: Medium-High (mix of official and secondary sources).
8. Salon suites (company-reported): Sola 750+ units, 21,000+ pros (Feb. 2026); Phenix 420+ (end 2025), plans 30+ openings in 2026; MY SALON Suite 370+ locations, 165 franchisees, 10,000+ members (Mar. 2026). Sola 2025 FDD (third-party summary): 660 franchised + 69 company units at end of 2024; median 2024 location gross revenue $420,052; average December 2024 occupancy 88.5%. Confidence: Medium (self-reported / secondary).
9. Census revenue (employer firms, SAS via FRED): beauty shops $27.035B (2022), up from $24.0B (2018), with a trough of $18.2B in 2020. Barber shops $1.819B (2022) vs. $1.207B (2018), +51% nominal. Confidence: High (data only through 2022; nominal).
10. Regis Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended Mar. 31, 2026): 3,770 salons (3,497 franchised; 273 company-owned); Supercuts same-store sales +5.0%; revenue $52.4M; net income $0.7M; $127.1M borrowings with refinancing efforts. Confidence: High (company filing/release).
11. Classification: IRS Pub 4902 lists booth-renter indicators (own key, own hours, own products, own phone/business name, sets prices). California Labor Code §2778 lets licensed barbers and cosmetologists be contractors only if all conditions are met (own rates and payments, paid directly by clients, own hours and clients, own book and scheduling, own business license, 1099 to salon when renting); the manicurist provision sunsets Jan. 1, 2029. The DOL proposed an FLSA contractor rule in Feb. 2026 (comments to Apr. 28, 2026) that was not final as of Aug. 2026. Confidence: High (IRS/CA); Medium (DOL status after Aug. 2026).
12. Commission norms: A 2023 Mangomint survey (non-random, US/Canada) found staff most often report 50–59% commission (44% of staff) and owners 40–49%; 33% use sliding scales; 27% deduct product costs; 93% pay retail commission; 74% of rental arrangements are flat fees. Confidence: Medium (vendor survey).
13. Suite rent ranges: Salons by JC (a company source, July 2026) cites weekly suite rent of $265–$480 in smaller markets, $295–$650 in mid-sized cities and $325–$900 in major metros; its own suites run $230–$300. Confidence: Low-Medium (interested party; no independent dataset found).
14. 1099 thresholds: OBBBA raised the 1099-NEC/MISC threshold from $600 to $2,000 for payments after 2025; the 1099-K threshold reverted to $20,000 and 200 transactions. Confidence: Medium-High (IRS FAQ and trade press titles; full text not re-fetched due to rate limiting).

1. Labor market: BLS data

1.1 Employment and pay (Occupational Outlook Handbook, modified Aug. 27, 2026)

Verbatim quotes from the BLS page:

• "The median hourly wage for barbers was $18.37 in May 2025."
• "The median hourly wage for hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists was $17.21 in May 2025."
• Barbers: "The lowest 10 percent earned less than $13.75, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $36.76."
• Hairdressers etc.: "The lowest 10 percent earned less than $13.00, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $34.23."
• Quick Facts: "2025 Median Pay | $35,880 per year $17.25 per hour"; "Number of Jobs, 2025 | 670,800"; "Job Outlook, 2025–35 | 7% (Much faster than average)"; "Typical Entry-Level Education | Postsecondary nondegree award."
• Self-employed workers: 80% (barbers); 48% (hairdressers, hairstylists and cosmetologists). "Some lease booth space from a salon owner."
• BLS says tips are included in the wage data.
• Largest employers of hairdressers etc.: self-employed 48%, personal care services 45%, retail trade 5%.
• Median by industry (summarized read): hairdressers in personal care services ~$36,172; in retail ~$30,826; barbers in personal care services ~$37,900. Medium confidence (summarized).
• All occupations median: $50,980 ($24.51/hr).
• Annual openings: 80,300; new jobs 2025–35: 48,400.

Annual medians by occupation: hourly × 2,080 gives ≈$35,797 for hairdressers etc. (ONET lists $35,790) and ≈$38,210 for barbers. A summarizer returned "$38,129" for barbers, which is inconsistent. Use hourly figures or the group's $35,880. O*NET 39-5012.00 (ONET still shows 2024–34 projections: 575,200 employed in 2024, 5–6% growth.)

Limitations:

• OEWS surveys employers, so wage data covers employees, not most self-employed stylists.
• The 2025–35 projection series is new. Older secondary articles cite 2024–34 figures (e.g., +5%, ~84,200 openings).
• BLS OEWS HTML tables for May 2025 could not be fetched (index pages only).

1.2 Implications

• Half or more of the field works outside employer payrolls, so official wage medians understate the share of income from independent work and don't describe suite owners' earnings.
• Projected openings are dominated by replacement needs, which points to high turnover and exit.

2. Industry size and structure

2.1 Census Service Annual Survey (via FRED), employer firms

Sources: FRED REVEF812112ALLEST; FRED REVEF812111ALLEST. The series ends in 2022. Figures are nominal and exclude nonemployer businesses.

Boulevard computed average employer beauty-salon revenue of ≈$321K in 2022 ($27.035B ÷ 84,176 employer establishments). The establishment count is attributed to Census but was not independently verified. Boulevard

The Census Nonemployer Statistics API requires a key, so direct pulls failed. Current nonemployer counts for NAICS 812112 and 812111 are unverified.

2.2 Private market-size estimates (methodology flags)

• IBISWorld (as cited by Boulevard, updated June 2026): US hair salons $60.6B (2024) and $60.0B (2025); ~1,051,796 hair salon "businesses" (2024); hair and nail combined $90.4B/$90.9B. Flags: proprietary model; business counts include nonemployers (sole proprietors); secondhand citation.
• PBA Economic Snapshot (July 2020): 106,227 employer establishments (2019; $31.5B sales in 2018); 1,123,045 nonemployer establishments (2018; $30.6B); "more than 1.2 million total establishments and annual sales of more than $62 billion." 2008–2018: nonemployer establishments +36%, sales +63%; employer establishments +17%, sales +48%. Payroll jobs fell from 569,000 (Feb. 2020) to 93,000 (Apr. 2020). Flags: "salon industry" includes nail and skin businesses; data are 6+ years old; sources are Census, BLS and the 2012 Survey of Business Owners. PBA via IAHD
• Why estimates differ: Census employer revenue (~$27B beauty shops in 2022) vs. ~$60B (IBISWorld) mostly comes down to including nonemployers, plus differing scope (retail, nails, spas).

2.3 Salon suites

Interpretation: suite brands continue net growth, but Sola's openings (19 in 2025) are modest relative to its 750-unit base, and occupancy spread in FDD data shows location risk. FDD revenue is franchisee rent revenue, not stylist income. The 2026 Sola FDD (end-2025 counts) was not reviewed.

2.4 Chains: Regis

• Q3 FY2026 (quarter ended Mar. 31, 2026): 3,770 salons (3,497 franchised = 92.8%; 273 company-owned = 7.2%); Supercuts same-store sales +5.0% (vs. +1.1% a year earlier); revenue $52.4M (YTD $168.5M); net income $0.7M (YTD $2.5M); borrowings $127.1M ($116.4M term loan, $9.7M PIK interest, $1.0M revolver); cash $22.9M. Management emphasized traffic, brand standards, technology and loyalty, and "ongoing efforts to refinance existing credit arrangements." Business Wire, May 13, 2026
• Regis's earlier restructuring history (asset-light pivot, 2022–2024 debt amendments, the company-owned salon count rising after a 2024 franchisee acquisition) is not verified in this session. Do not publish specifics without a source. The Q4/FY2026 results (fiscal year ended June 30, 2026) were not retrieved.

2.5 Men's grooming / barbershops

• Census employer revenue for barbershops grew +51% nominal (2018–2022) vs. +13% for beauty shops.
• BLS projects slower job growth for barbers (+3%) than hairdressers (+8%) for 2025–35. Barbers are 80% self-employed.
• No independent 2025–26 men's grooming service market data was retrieved.

3. Compensation models

3.1 Commission

• Mangomint survey (May 2023; "hundreds of owners, managers, and staff" in the US and Canada) link:
  • Staff-reported service commission: <20%: 7%; 20–29%: 12%; 30–39%: 12%; 40–49%: 17%; 50–59%: 44%; 60–69%: 8%; ≥70%: 0%.
  • Owners/managers most commonly report 40–49%.
  • 33% use sliding-scale commission; 93% pay retail commission; 60% deduct nothing from commission, 27% deduct supplies, 13% deduct card processing; 54% track commission in software.
  • Rental arrangements: 74% flat fee, 17% percentage of sales, 9% hybrid; 58% collected monthly, 17% weekly.
  • Limitation: vendor survey, non-probability sample.

3.2 Booth rent

• No independent source with booth rent dollar ranges was verified (a GlossGenius page was rate-limited). Posts use an illustrative $250/week, clearly labeled.

3.3 Suite rent

• Salons by JC (July 21, 2026; modified Aug. 4, 2026): major metro $325–$900/week; mid-sized cities $295–$650; smaller markets $265–$480; Salons by JC $230–$300. Includes chair, mirror, shampoo bowl, utilities, Wi-Fi and a concierge manager. Two-month refundable deposit (e.g., ~$2,076 for a $259.50/week suite). Month-to-month. Limitation: competitor-framed marketing content.

3.4 Illustrative break-even model (used in Post 22)

Assumptions: 48 working weeks, 52 rent weeks; 45% commission; independents' product 10% + card fees 3% of sales; booth $250/week + $3,360/yr other fixed costs; suite $400/week + $5,460/yr; subtract the additional half of FICA (7.65% × 92.35% of net). Results (annual, before income tax):

• $800/week sales: commission $17,280 | booth $15,844 | suite $6,643
• $1,000: $21,600 | $23,606 | $14,405
• $1,500: $32,400 | $43,010 | $33,810
• $2,125: $45,900 | $67,267 | $58,066
• $2,500: $54,000 | $81,820 | $72,620
• Break-even vs. commission: ≈$890/week (booth), ≈$1,425/week (suite).

These are model outputs, not data.

4. Worker classification

4.1 IRS

• Publication 4902 (Tax Tips for the Cosmetology & Barber Industry, Feb. 2011): booth renter indicators are "having a key to the establishment," "setting your own hours," "purchasing your own products," "having your own phone number and business name," and "determining the prices to be charged." If these are absent, the worker is likely an employee. Employees report tips to the employer by the 10th of the following month; employees keep daily tip records (Form 4070A). The publication's statement that renters issue a 1099-MISC for rent over $600 predates the OBBBA threshold change. IRS P4902 Limitation: 2011 publication.
• 1099 thresholds (OBBBA): 1099-NEC/MISC $600 → $2,000 for payments after Dec. 31, 2025 (indexed later) CPA Practice Advisor, July 30, 2025; 1099-K reverts to $20,000 / 200 transactions IRS FAQ. Full text not fetched (rate limit). Titles and prior knowledge are consistent.

4.2 California AB5 / Labor Code §2778

The exemption from the ABC test for a licensed barber or cosmetologist (Borello test applies instead) requires the individual to:

1. Set their own rates, process their own payments, and be paid directly by clients.
2. Set their own hours and have sole discretion over the number of clients and which clients to serve.
3. Have their own book of business and schedule their own appointments.
4. Maintain their own business license for the services offered.
5. If performing work at the hiring entity's location, issue a Form 1099 to the salon or business owner from which they rent space.

The provision becomes inoperative for licensed manicurists on Jan. 1, 2029, with a report on misclassification allegations due to the Legislature by June 1, 2026. Labor Code §2778. Confidence: High on the statute text; verify the exact subsection lettering before quoting it.

4.3 US Department of Labor (FLSA)

• A proposed rule (announced Feb. 26–27, 2026) would rescind the 2024 rule and restore a 2021-style test with two core factors: control and opportunity for profit/loss. The comment period closed Apr. 28, 2026. Per Jackson Lewis (Mar. 4, 2026), the 2024 rule remains in effect for private litigation, while DOL field staff analyze status using a 2008 fact-sheet framework. Jackson Lewis
• Status: "not yet finalized" as of Aug. 19, 2026. SelfEmployed.com Not verified after Aug. 19, 2026.

5. Tips: reporting and the qualified tips deduction

5.1 Legal basis and timeline

• OBBBA (2025) created IRC §224.
• Treasury published a preliminary occupation list in 2025 and proposed regulations later that year. Final regulations, TD 10044, were announced Apr. 10, 2026 (IR-2026-49), published in the Federal Register Apr. 13, 2026, and became effective June 12, 2026.
• The final list added visual artists, floral designers and gas pump attendants relative to the proposal.
• Hair occupations: TTOC 603 Barbers, Hairdressers, Hairstylists, or Cosmetologists, with "Shampooers" as an illustrative example; TTOC 606 Eyebrow and Eyelash Technicians. These fall in the 600s "personal appearance and wellness" category.

5.2 Deduction mechanics

• Cap: $25,000 per return (the cap applies per return regardless of filing status, per RSM).
• Years: 2025–2028. "No deduction is allowed under section 224 for any taxable year beginning after December 31, 2028."
• Phase-out: reduced by $100 for each $1,000 of MAGI over $150,000 ($300,000 joint).
• Available to non-itemizers; claimed on Schedule 1-A.
• Married taxpayers must file jointly. An SSN is required (issued before the return due date). Both spouses' SSNs are needed only when both have qualified tips.
• Self-employed: limited to gross income minus deductions allocable to the trade or business (i.e., net income).
• Payroll/SE taxes still apply.

5.3 Qualified tip definition

• Paid voluntarily without consequence, not negotiated, determined by the payor. Cash or cash equivalents (card, check, apps).
• Tip pools qualify, but amounts a manager or supervisor receives through a tip-sharing arrangement are not qualified tips.
• Automatic gratuities and service charges are not qualified tips.
• Must be reported on a W-2, 1099-NEC, 1099-MISC or 1099-K, or on Form 4137.

5.4 Reporting changes

• 2025: transition relief; no separate reporting required on statements.
• 2026 onward: Form W-2 Box 12 code "TP" (qualified tips) and Box 14b (TTOC).
• Specified service trade or business (SSTB): §1.224-1(g) is reserved. Notice 2025-69 transition relief treats listed tipped workers as non-SSTB "until January 1 of the first calendar year following the issuance of finalized SSTB regulations." Separate proposed SSTB regulations are expected. As of Sept. 17, 2026, final SSTB regulations could not be confirmed.
• Ohio Society of CPAs (Mar. 20, 2026) headline: "IRS change to tip deduction guidance may require amended returns." Page returned 404, so details are unverified.

5.5 Standard tip reporting (pre-existing rules)

• Employees who receive $20 or more in tips in a month report them to the employer by the 10th of the following month (Form 4070 or equivalent). Employers withhold income tax and FICA. Unreported tips go on Form 4137. IRS Pub 531; Tip recordkeeping and reporting; Topic 761. Pub 531 not re-fetched; the $20 rule is long-standing.

6. Licensing

6.1 National picture: Institute for Justice, License to Work 3 (2022)

• Cosmetologist: licensed in 51 jurisdictions; ranked 24th of 102 occupations for average burden and 5th combined. Education/experience ranges from 233 days (five states) to 490 days (Iowa). Fees range from $60 (OK) to $450 (AK). All 51 require exams; 39 set a minimum age; 35 set a minimum grade. Since 2017, 15 states reduced education requirements, and fees changed most often (usually up). IJ profile
• Reform spotlight: the 1,000-hour minimum is ≈233 days; programs often take 18+ months; average cost ~$16,000. All six barbering and beauty occupations carry higher average burdens than entry-level EMTs. Since 2017: 8 beauty licenses eliminated (e.g., makeup artists, shampooers); 60 reductions in education/experience across beauty (32% of all reductions); 32 states exempt African-style hair braiders. Examples: Alaska manicurist hours cut from 250 back to 12; Mississippi braider registration yielded 6,700+ braiders vs. 18 licensed under Louisiana's 500-hour requirement. IJ
• An AIR study cited by IJ (11 states) found an average of 1,645 required hours, ~167 (≈10%) on safety and sanitation. Cosmetologists average "about a year" of training vs. "just over a month" for EMTs. IJ FAQ
• Limitation: IJ is a libertarian public-interest law firm that litigates against licensing; its data are well-documented but framed for reform. The data are from 2022.

6.2 State examples (verified)

• Texas (TDLR): 1,000-hour Cosmetology Operator course at a licensed school; written exam available after 900 hours; practical exam after; $50 fee; age 17+; 2-year license. TDLR High.
• California (SB 803): barbers and cosmetologists 1,000 hours (from 1,500–1,600); health and safety 65→100 hours; dermaplaning added to scope. DCA blog cites an effective date of Jan. 1, 2022. CA DCA Medium-High (implementation timing may have differed from enactment; verify with BBC).
• Utah (SB 330, eff. Jan. 1, 2026): apprenticeship hours equal school hours (cosmetology 1,250; master barber 1,000; nail technology 300); licenses consolidated into a single "cosmetology license" with self-identification as barber; hair design renamed "master hair design / master barbering"; apprentices supervised, max 2 per supervisor, finish within 2 years; threading exempt. AHP, May 2, 2025 Medium-High.
• Iowa: cosmetology was 2,100 hours (IJ 2022), then 1,550 school hours after a 2023 change (per The Gazette; LJIC school page also states 1,550). HF 711 (signed early June 2025) creates a registered establishment training program: unlicensed trainees work under licensed supervision after ~2 hours of sanitation education, may seek licensure after 2,000 supervised hours, and businesses must register and disclose. Reason cites average board-approved program tuition of $19,508. Board rulemaking is required; the implementation date is unverified. Gazette; Reason; IJ Medium (summaries of barber vs. cosmetology hours were partly inconsistent).
• Ohio (HB 238, signed Jan. 8, 2025): 450-hour natural hair stylists may cut hair; boutique services expanded to include shampooing and rinsing; affidavit requirements for braiders, threaders and makeup artists removed; contact-information registration only. IJ Medium-High.
• Illinois (HB 3460): apprenticeship pathway for barbers, cosmetologists, estheticians, braiders and nail techs. WSIU (June 8, 2026) reported the bill awaiting the governor's signature; the IJ press release reports it signed (IJ page dated July 2026 per fetch). Barber education is 1,500 hours. IJ Medium (effective date unverified).
• Nebraska: 8 hours of CE every 2 years; apprentice salon application exists; initial hours not stated on the DHHS page (aggregators disagree: 1,800 vs. 2,100). NE DHHS

Warning on aggregators: A 50-state hours table (getlicensemap.com, Feb. 2026) listed Alaska, Connecticut, Georgia and Michigan at "1 hour" and Utah at 1,600, which conflicts with the official changes above. Do not use 50-state aggregator tables without board verification.

6.3 Cosmetology Licensure Compact

• Model legislation was developed with the Council of State Governments' National Center for Interstate Compacts, with DoD support and the Future of the Beauty Industry Coalition. Activation begins after the 7th state enacts, typically followed by an 18–24 month setup.
• Members (13): Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Delaware, Kansas, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia. Recent enactments: West Virginia 11th (Apr. 2, 2026; HB 5087); Delaware 12th (June 15, 2026; SB 217); Pennsylvania 13th (July 20–21, 2026; SB 331). Commission news
• July 2026 status from the commission: "licensed cosmetologists in member states cannot yet practice through the compact."
• Salon Today (Mar. 12, 2026): the licensing database was under development, with state testing expected in March and multistate licenses possibly by summer 2026. An esthetics compact has legislation introduced in AL, KS and VA and drafts in CA, KY, OH and TN. Salon Today
• Sept. 2026: GL Solutions (Sept. 16) says Arizona became the first state to issue multistate cosmetology licenses, operational Sept. 10, 2026. Eligibility: active Arizona license in good standing, Arizona primary residence, $30 compact fee plus standard fees. Hoodline (Sept. 12, citing KJZZ) reports two licenses completed and ~20 applications under review, applications only during the renewal window, and cosmetologists only. Not confirmed on the Arizona BCB site or the commission news page as of fetch. Medium confidence.

6.4 Barber vs. cosmetology

• Scope differences (straight-razor shaving usually barber-only; broader chemical and color services under cosmetology) vary by state. Some states are consolidating (Utah). Hours are often similar (CA 1,000 for both). Barbers are far more likely to be self-employed (80% vs. 48%).

7. Beauty school cost, outcomes and federal accountability

• IJ: average cosmetology program cost ~$16,000 (2022 spotlight). Reason (2025) cites Iowa average tuition of $19,508.
• IJ's Beauty School Debt and Drop-Outs (2021) exists (national and Utah editions, indexed in ERIC as ED623452/ED623454). Figures not retrieved (rate limit).
• Federal Financial Value Transparency / Gainful Employment (2023 rule) and OBBBA accountability: A Federal Register document titled "Accountability in Higher Education and Access Through Demand-Driven Workforce Pell: Student Tuition and Transparency System (STATS) and Earnings Accountability" was published Apr. 20, 2026. New America published "What the One Big Beautiful Bill Means for Cosmetology Students," and NASFAA maintains a "2026 STATS/Earnings Accountability Framework" page. Whether this is proposed or final, how it treats undergraduate certificate programs like cosmetology, and what happened to the 2023 GE debt-to-earnings test could NOT be verified. This is a high-priority follow-up before publishing any claims about federal beauty school accountability.

8. Pricing, retail margins, no-shows

• Cost-per-service method (Post 23): price floor = (product + hours × (overhead/billable hour + pay/billable hour)) ÷ (1 − card % − profit %). Illustrative inputs: $30,000 fixed costs; 48 weeks × 35 hours × 80% = 1,344 billable hours → overhead $22.32/hr. $60,000 target grossed up for SE tax (≈14.13%) → $69,873 → $51.99/hr. Total $74.31/hr. Resulting floors: cut (1 hr, $3 product) ≈ $89; single-process color (2 hr, $22) ≈ $196; 1.5 hr ≈ $153; blowout (0.75 hr) ≈ $66. Model outputs, not market data.
• Keystone: retail = 2× wholesale → 50% gross margin, reduced by retail commission (93% of salons pay one, per Mangomint 2023).
• Time-based, service-based and level-based pricing: described conceptually. No independent data on prevalence was retrieved.
• No-show/deposit policies: no authoritative data on no-show rates retrieved. State hidden-fee and deposit laws (e.g., California's SB 478 "honest pricing" law) were not verified in this session; posts only advise checking local rules.
• Boulevard (vendor) reports that ~78% of online first-time bookers return vs. ~39% of walk-ins, and that ~46–50% of bookings occur after hours. Vendor platform data; not used in posts.

Open questions / not verified

1. Current federal gainful-employment / earnings-accountability status for cosmetology certificate programs (the Apr. 20, 2026 Federal Register document's status and content).
2. Whether final SSTB regulations under §224 have been issued (none found as of Sept. 2026), and state conformity with the tips deduction.
3. The Ohio Society of CPAs report of IRS guidance changes requiring amended 2025 returns (page 404).
4. Official confirmation of Arizona's multistate license issuance; other states' timelines.
5. DOL independent contractor final rule status after Aug. 19, 2026.
6. Ulta Beauty salon count and services revenue; Great Clips unit count; Regis FY2026 year-end results and restructuring history details.
7. Independent booth-rent and suite-rent datasets. Only vendor and company ranges were found.
8. Census nonemployer counts for NAICS 812112/812111 (API key required) and SAS data after 2022.
9. IJ Beauty School Debt and Drop-Outs figures; NACCAS completion and placement data.
10. Official 50-state cosmetology hour table from boards (e.g., via NIC); Nebraska, Oregon and South Dakota current hours.
11. Illinois HB 3460 signing date and effective date; Iowa HF 711 implementation rules.
12. The 2026 Sola FDD (end-of-2025 unit counts, Item 19).
13. Men's grooming services market data (independent).

Source list